Scenario building and forecasting tools help design the future of a project. They are a way of answering the question, "Where should we be going and how will we get there?" These strategic planning tools, as distinct from the others, are usually about the big decisions organizations face about their future. They are strategic in that they involve decisions and actions with major consequences that extend over long time periods, and attend to the short and long term environmental factors that may affect events.

Scenario building. This is a process of designing a hypothetical situation in a way that helps you predict the consequences of decisions and actions. For example, Massachusetts has proposed legislation to require all state agencies to consult a database of outstanding arrest warrants when a citizen is seeking a service or benefit. Officials could examine the possible consequences of such a new policy by creating a scenario. This scenario would assume reasonable values for the number of times the policy would generate arrests of various types, and compute the increased demand on jails or law enforcement officers.

Forecasting. This tool is also used to predict future events, but it uses calculations based on historical data. Forecasting typically uses data that have been collected on some events over time and uses them to project trends into the future. Populations, crime statistics, and budgets often have ample historical data for forecasting. The mathematical models used in forecasting may take into account the forces that influence trends to adjust the predictions.

Simplifying reality for testing. These kinds of models provide a simplified version of reality against which to test ideas and explore consequences. They are most useful in the kind of complex situations characteristic of justice systems and their information flows.

Exploring possible actions. A model can be a very powerful tool to explore possible courses of action or decisions. Consequences can be explored in hypothetical rather than real situations, so the costs of errors or bad decisions are limited.

Developing a common understanding. The development of models also provides a way of creating a shared understanding of complex systems among those that work in them. This shared understanding can be of great value as an aid in collaboration.

Require advanced technical skills. The kinds of models described here require relatively high levels of technical skill for their construction and interpretation. If these skills are not available in your organization, it will require the intervention of external experts, usually at considerable cost.

Quality depends on data. In addition, the quality of the analysis resulting from the model is no better than the model itself and the data on which it is based. Careful testing and validation are necessary to avoid conclusions or actions based on a flawed model.

Presentation, communication. Models of this sort often pose problems of presentation and communication as well. They frequently involve complex mathematical operations or graphic images that are hard to understand and explain to non-technical audiences. A well-designed interpretation and presentation must accompany the modeling work for non- technical audiences and policy makers.

Ward, J., P. Griffiths, and P.Whitmore (1990). Strategic Planning for Information Systems. New York: John Wiley & Sons.