Investment decisions in the public sector, whether they involve IT or not, necessarily take place in a context of political and policy influences. No matter how solid or technically sophisticated an ROI analysis may be, it will not likely be the sole determinant of an investment decision. When deciding how to prepare and present an ROI analysis, therefore, it is best to take into account all the potential risks that influence the decision process. Undertaking an ROI analysis should include attention to the risk factors identified below.

• Public exposure to failure
• Divided authority over decisions
• Multiple stakeholders
• Year-to-year budget cycles
• Highly regulated procurement processes

• Complex program networks
• Misalignment of (or conflicting) internal goals
• Lack of leadership support

• Impact on existing process
• Fear of changing work assignments

• Rapid changes in technology
• Interacting with parallel systems
• Scale and complexity

Most of the risk assessment issues listed here involve problems related to thinking beyond the boundaries of the project, measuring factors, or determining probabilities. Simply recognizing where uncertainty and potential damage may lie is half the battle. Careful risk analysis, based on the best available data and estimates, will surely assist in ROI analysis and improve planning, even if the amount or quality of data is less than ideal.

Considering these various risk factors can help shape the style, emphasis or presentation strategies employed to introduce the analysis into the decision making process. Such considerations as those listed here may also help in recruiting support for the conclusions of your ROI analysis and guiding how the analysis process is positioned when seeking that support.